US Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 13 June 2008 /

That injured knee is hurting Tiger and he's a lay in tonight's three-ball at [2.2], says Paul Krishnamurty in his Torrey Pines update

The USGA appear to have played a blinder in their preparation of this year's venue. Torrey Pines has not been set up quite as brutal as many of us expected, with the organisers sensibly calculating that at 7,643 yards, the longest course in US Open history posed enough of a challenge to need tricking up any further. The rough is penal in places, but sensibly graded and the greens are not too fast. Scoring is still anything but easy though, and if the wind gets up we'll see plenty of carnage.

Even with the pin positions at their most favourable, Torrey Pines took its share of victims. Prominent pre-tournament contenders Padraig Harrington, Sergio Garcia, Justin Rose and Retief Goosen, along with defending champion Angel Cabrera, all face a tough battle to make the cut. Only 11 players shot under-par for their first round, but even accounting for the fact that US Open conditions nearly always deteriorate as the greens dry out, it looks certain that the winning score will be better than the +5 tallies of the past two years.

Anyone who picked either of the first-round leaders deserves a medal. Pre-tournament [1000.0] chances Kevin Streelman and Justin Hicks are surely not going to be serious factors on Sunday though, which makes the 'real' lead -2, a position shared by four players including former US Open champion Geoff Ogilvy.

With that in mind, any of the 44 players who hit 73 (+2) or better should be happy with their day's work, not least Tiger Woods. On his first competitive round since the Masters and knee surgery, Woods looked well below his best. He hit just six fairways, yet thanks to a typically magical round on or around those Torrey greens he knows so well, Tiger was able to register a decent first round score of 72.

However there was no mistaking the pain his knee was causing, and unless his driving improves drastically he won't be winning. A sure sign of how little confidence punters took from Woods' performance is that, whereas the odds of all the other early starters within challenging distance shortened as the evening progressed, Tiger's price stubbornly remained around [5.0].

His principal rival Phil Mickelson will have been delighted to win their all-star three-ball, (Adam Scott being the third member), with a level par opening round, especially having at one stage languished at +3. Mickelson was in bullish spirits when interviewed afterwards, enjoying the huge support from his home-town crowd. His high ball-flight is a major asset on this course, and on today's evidence he looked a likelier winner than Woods.

They tee off late tomorrow at 21.36, by which time I expect Mickelson's current odds of [7.6] to have shortened further. Scott shot the highest round of the three at +2, but didn't play badly. Against opponents of this calibre, a clearly injured Woods is well worth taking on at [2.2].

Another happy interviewee was Lee Westwood, who represents the best current outright trade at [32.0]. Lee shot -1 to fare best of my four pre-tournament 'Find Me a 100 Winner' selections, of whom Camilo Villegas was the only other to remain competitive. I'm happy to press up on Westwood now though, as he's driving the ball superbly at the moment, the importance of which can't be overstated around this course. He's another late starter so again expect to see those odds tumble in the short-term if and when nobody gets away from the pack in the morning.

The pick of those currently trading in three figures could be Boo Weekley at [150.0]. His opening 73 is a fair mid-division position, and I'm hoping he can improve as the tournament goes on, just like he did in the Masters. Perhaps because he's not exactly a fashionable player, Boo seems to be under-estimated in this company. Remember he won on the PGA Tour only eight weeks ago, and was bang in contention again last weekend. Again, his long, straight driving will be a big asset here.

Selections:

Lee Westwood @ [32.0]
Boo Weekley @ [150.0]

Three-ball

21.36 - Lay Tiger Woods @ [2.2]

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